Empty Shelves and Early Verdicts

Why America rushes to certainty long before the storm arrives

Jan 26, 2026

Empty Shelves at Shop-Rite Supermarket, Cedar Knolls, NJ

These photos were taken on Thursday — nearly two full days before a snowstorm even formed, and three days before it was supposed to hit our area. And yet: bare shelves. Bread gone. Meat gone. Milk disappearing like we were about to be snowed in until Easter.

A clerk at the same store told me about a woman who bought ten gallons of milk. They asked if she had a big family at home. She said no — just her and her husband. When someone in line asked if they could buy one gallon, she refused… until the store stepped in and asked her to hand one over.

For a storm that, realistically, might keep most of us home… a day. Maybe a day and a half. Two days max?

We do the exact same thing in politics.

Right now, the political class is already clearing the shelves for a Democratic win in the 2026 midterms. You can’t turn on a channel without hearing some version of: House flips, Senate is close, story over, see you in November.

But when you look under the hood — at the numbers that actually measure the national mood — it starts to feel like we’re panic-buying that narrative before the storm clouds even roll in.

Because the real question isn’t “Will Democrats gain ground?” History says, more often than not, they will.

The real question is: Are we watching a genuine wave building… or a familiar human reflex — an emotional rush to certainty — driven by a relatively small, movable slice of voters?

Two Americas, One Remote Control

You’re lucky if you don’t watch cable news all day like I do, because if you do, you start to wonder whether you’re living in the United States… or a choose-your-own-adventure novel.

On one channel, Trump is a reckless chaos engine — overreach here, tariffs there, ICE actions somewhere else, a foreign-policy posture critics describe as bullying NATO partners (Greenland included). The message is simple: this can’t hold. The storm is already here.

On another channel, Trump is doing exactly what he said he would do: push boundaries, pressure allies, swing hard at immigration, shake up trade, rattle the global chessboard. And the message is just as simple: this is what we voted for.

So here’s the electoral reality — stated plainly.

If you’re outraged by Trump’s posture on Greenland, his ICE actions, his tariff threats, his emboldened style — you probably didn’t vote for him in 2024.
If you’re nodding along thinking, “Finally, someone is doing it” — you probably did.

It makes the country sorted.

Charlie Cook put it bluntly in last week’s newsletter and we agree with him: roughly 90% of the electorate is effectively locked in. The real contest is fought over what’s left — and of that, only 5% actually vote.

According to Cook, “…in six national polls released over the last week, Trump’s approval rating among Democrats averaged 4 percent (94 percent disapprove); among independents, 30 percent (64 percent disapprove); and among Republicans, 88 percent (11 percent disapprove).”

America did not wake up and change its mind overnight. The same group who voted for Trump in 2024 is still with him.

It is the persuadable—our forever Phoenix voter—the 21-44 year old, low information, low engagement female voter who is having buyer’s remorse.

So when the mainstream media frames every headline as proof that “America has turned,” the more accurate interpretation is:

the same America is reacting loudly — and the persuadables are deciding what they feel about it.

Oh and about that, the White House messaging is losing her — by about D+8 among independents, according to Gallup.

The Storm Isn’t the Story. The Reaction Is.

Let’s go back to the supermarket.

The storm hadn’t done anything yet. Roads weren’t closed. People weren’t stranded. Power wasn’t out. Nothing had happened.

But the reaction was real — because uncertainty feels like danger, and buying stuff feels like control.

That’s the psychological bridge to politics right now.

A lot of midterm chatter sounds like it’s based on a full, settled verdict on the Trump presidency. But Trump has been in office one year — and whether you love him or hate him, he is largely doing what he campaigned on.

So why do we already have this drumbeat of an inevitable (albeit close) House takeover?

Because midterms are often less about what’s happened, and more about how people feel while it’s happening. And Americans are famously bad at waiting.

We don’t do “let’s see how this plays out.”
We do “I need to feel safe now.”

So we stock up.
We pre-decide.
We brace.

And this group of persuadables are notoriously anti-incumbent.

The Generic Ballot: The Receipt in the Cart

If you want one national “receipt” that shows what voters are actually doing — not what pundits are saying — it’s the generic congressional ballot. Simple question, huge implications: Democrat or Republican for Congress?

This is not a head to head candidate poll.

Yes, Democrats currently hold an edge nationally — roughly D+3 to D+4 (points). That’s meaningful. But it’s not a screaming landslide, and it’s certainly not the kind of number that justifies January certainty about November outcomes.

For context, at this same point a year ago on Inauguration Day, Republicans held a R+3.3 advantage — while in 2018, Democrats were sitting at a far more decisive D+9.3 with a net gain of +41 seats.

To dig deeper, I asked Adam Geller — a highly respected pollster at National Research and one of the two pollsters behind last week’s Wall Street Journal national poll — a very specific question:

Are the purple states showing anything unusual? Any divergence from the national generic ballot that suggests something different is happening under the surface?

His answer was telling:

“For the most part there is no divergence… among registered voters (too early for likely voters), the generic is really maybe D+3 on average. It’s driven by intense partisanship. The independents are split — but the gender gap is noteworthy. Indy men and Indy women are on opposite sides of the generic ballot spectrum.”

Read that carefully, because it explains almost everything.

This is not a mass ideological realignment. It’s intense partisanship doing what it always does, combined with a persuadable slice that is not moving as a bloc — but splitting by gender.

The storm narrative isn’t about persuading “America.”
It’s about which half of independents shows up feeling more anxious — and about what.

So Why Don’t the Numbers Look Worse?

If you take the national D+3 to D+4 generic ballot and line it up next to Gallup’s D+8 Democratic lean among independents (fully acknowledging they’re different methodologies), you’d expect something harsher by now. Historically, true wave elections show up early with D+10 to D+15 environments.

And yet, here we are: a near-universal pundit consensus that the House will flip, paired with numbers that still look more like a lean than a landslide.

So I put that exact question to Geller:

Why isn’t the generic ballot more unfavorable to Republicans at this point — and what does it mean?

His answer was candid — and importantly, subjective:

“Because it’s really early, and because there are things that people kinda like about Trump that aren’t showing up in the polls. But that’s just my opinion, and I’m open to other interpretations.”

That answer opens the door to two very different — but equally plausible — scenarios for independents right now.

Scenario One: The Anti-Incumbent Reflex Is Already Priced In

In this view, independents are doing what they almost always do in midterms: expressing frustration with the party in power.

They’re uneasy.
They’re annoyed.
They’re not thrilled by the noise.

So they lean Democratic in abstract questions — like party ID and the generic ballot — even if they haven’t fully translated that feeling into decisive congressional choices yet.

This would explain why:

Gallup shows independents leaning D by about eight points, but
the generic ballot remains stuck around D+3 or D+4.

In other words, the emotion is there — the commitment is not.

That’s not a wave yet. That’s a warning light.

Scenario Two: There’s Still Trump “Elasticity” in the System

Adam’s other point is the unsettling one for some of the pundit class: there are aspects of Trump that some voters still like — or at least aren’t ready to punish — and those don’t always show up cleanly in early-cycle polling.

This doesn’t mean they love everything he does.
It doesn’t mean they’ve signed up for four more years emotionally.

It means they’re holding back judgment.
They’re watching.
They’re waiting.

They’re not rushing to empty the political shelves just yet.

Charlie Cook Ties It All Together

This is exactly the tension Charlie Cook captured in his own assessment in his newsletter this week:

“In the House, Trump’s radioactivity in swing districts makes a Democratic takeover a very high probability. I’d put it at 75 percent. But the solidarity among Republican voters likely contains the losses the party might otherwise suffer. It is unlikely that GOP losses will exceed the 26 seats that is the post-World War II average for the party in the White House.”

That’s the synthesis.

Yes — Trump creates problems in swing districts.
Yes — Democrats are favored to take the House.

But no — this does not look like a historic blowout.

Why? Because Republican voters remain unusually unified, and independents — while leaning Democratic — are still hesitating.

So Who Is Connecting With the Phoenix Voter?

You don’t have to agree with Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s politics. You don’t have to support universal healthcare, democratic socialism, or her broader progressive agenda. Many of our readers don’t.

But it’s hard to deny this: she understands how to connect with the midterm voter, particularly the Phoenix voter — the 21–44-year-old woman who is affordability-focused, authenticity-driven, and increasingly impatient with systems that feel rigged against her.

Last week, AOC questioned the CEO of CVS Health in what was, regardless of ideology, a masterclass in how to speak to that voter.

What made it effective wasn’t all theatrics. It wasn’t slogans. It was clarity.

She walked through — step by step — how a single, hypothetical patient (“Kate”) interacts with the modern healthcare system:

Kate has an Aetna insurance plan — owned by CVS.
She goes to a CVS pharmacy — owned by CVS.
She visits an Oak Street Health clinic — owned by CVS.
Her prescription is processed by CVS Caremark — owned by CVS.

In other words, the same corporate entity touches nearly every point of her healthcare experience — from insurance, to care, to prescription pricing.

AOC didn’t need a white paper. She didn’t need to say “vertical integration” a dozen times. She used a simple chart and a relatable example to show how one company controls the flow — and the cost — of care for millions of Americans.

And then she made the pivot that matters politically.

She framed the issue not as left versus right, but as fairness versus concentration of power. She even noted — correctly — that this should be common ground, whether you’re “a blue-blooded capitalist or a card-carrying democratic socialist.”

That’s the connective tissue.

Affordability.
Authenticity.
And the appearance — rightly or wrongly — that someone is actually doing something.

This is precisely where the disconnect with the White House shows up for the Phoenix voter. Broad economic messaging, abstract wins, and macro indicators don’t land the same way as a clear story about why your prescription costs so much — and who benefits when it does.

For the Phoenix voter, this isn’t about ideology. It’s about who looks like they’re fighting for her — and who sounds like they’re managing around her.

That’s why moments like this resonate. And it’s why, in a midterm environment defined by impatience and buyer’s remorse, the messenger often matters as much as — if not more than — the policy itself.

Harry, We Agree — But You’re Two Weeks Behind

Motivation — and complacency — has always been the bane of the GOP.

Rob Finnerty and I talked about this two weeks ago, warning Republicans that while the base may be perfectly content with Trump as president, that satisfaction is not translating into urgency about keeping Congress in Republican hands.

This week, our old friend CNN’s Harry Enten arrived at the same conclusion — just a little later than we did.

The data he walked through makes the problem unmistakable.

Just before the 2024 election, Republicans were actually more motivated to vote than Democrats. About 67% of Republicans said they were “extremely motivated” to turn out, compared to 62% of Democrats. The GOP base felt energized, confident — almost celebratory.

Fast forward to early 2026, and that enthusiasm has evaporated.

Only 50% of Republicans now say they are extremely motivated to vote in the midterms. Democrats? 66% — higher than they were heading into Trump’s reelection.

The analogy used on air was spot-on: Republicans went from feeling like they were going out for ice cream… to feeling like they’re going to the dentist.

That gap matters — a lot — because midterms aren’t about broad approval. They’re about who shows up.

Among all voters, Democrats currently lead the generic congressional ballot by about five points. But when you isolate the voters who say they are extremely motivated to vote, that lead explodes to sixteen points.

That’s not persuasion.
That’s turnout math.

And we’ve already seen what that math looks like in practice: Democrats dramatically outperforming baseline expectations in off-year and special elections — New Jersey, Virginia, and House specials — even in districts where Republicans ran ahead in 2024.

So what’s driving the motivation gap?

Here’s the key distinction Harry’s data surfaces — and one Republicans can’t afford to ignore:

Liking Trump is not the same thing as feeling motivated to vote for Republicans in Congress.

In early 2025, roughly 90% of Republicans believed the GOP in Congress would be effective at passing laws. Today, that number has dropped to 70% — a massive erosion of confidence in just one year.

Trump is visible.
Trump is active.
Trump is signing executive orders.

Congress, by contrast, feels stalled — and to many voters, irrelevant.

For the Phoenix voter, this distinction is critical. She doesn’t separate process from results. She doesn’t care who controls which committee. She wants to see movement. And when she doesn’t, frustration doesn’t necessarily push her toward Republicans — it pushes her toward disengagement, or toward the side that looks more energized, more urgent, and more operational.

This is how you end up with a midterm environment that looks contained in topline polling — but dangerous in execution.

Motivation votes first. And at this point, the Dems have it.

📺 This Week on Newsmax

Live on Finnerty this week, Rob and I break down the surge in voters identifying as Independent, whether it actually favors either party, and what it means for the 2026 midterms. Plus: Charlie Cook’s 90/10/5 model, House gravity vs. Senate math, and why candidate fit matters most in purple states.

The Zoose Engine for Campaign Professionals Coming Soon

📊 ZNMI — Mood Stable / Unchanged

With only one of the ZNMI’s three core inputs updating this week, the index held steady. Presidential approval improved modestly following recent foreign policy developments, but without confirmation from the generic congressional ballot or right track/wrong track measures, the broader national mood remains unchanged. Several left-leaning polls registered sharper negativity, which we view as a warning signal rather than a confirmed shift in sentiment.

📡 Weekly Mood Signals — Week Ending 1/23/26

➖ Jobless Claims — Neutral / Pending Update

Weekly jobless claims data for the week ending January 23 has not yet been released and is scheduled for publication on January 29.