It’s Trump’s Big Day—But Could It Be Even Bigger for Jack Ciattarelli?
Here’s How the Trump Effect Could Reshape the NJ Governor’s Race in 2025
As Donald Trump takes the oath of office, all eyes are on Washington. But here in New Jersey, one candidate may have even more to gain from Trump’s return to power—Jack Ciattarelli.
New Jersey has long been seen as a Democratic stronghold, but Trump’s stronger-than-expected 2024 performance shows a shifting political map that could make the 2025 governor’s race far more competitive than conventional wisdom suggests.
While much of the media focuses on Trump’s national impact, our AI-driven election model has identified why Trump’s gains in New Jersey could directly boost Ciattarelli’s path to victory.
📊 How Trump’s NJ Gains Reshape the Governor’s Race
Trump’s 2024 election results in New Jersey revealed a realignment in key voting blocs. If these trends hold, Ciattarelli could ride the wave in 2025.
🚨 Key Takeaway: With Morris and Gloucester as Republican leaning counties, Ciattarelli has a clearer statewide path than any NJ Republican in years - including his failed bid four years ago.
📈 Zoose Political Index [ZPI]: Ciattarelli Moves Into First Place
Our latest AI-powered ranking - The Zoose Political Index [ZPI] - now reflects the Trump effect on the NJ governor’s race.
📊 Our latest NJ Gubernatorial Rankings (Adjusted for Trump’s NJ Performance:
1️⃣ 🔴 Jack Ciattarelli (87.5) ⬆️ – Biggest gainer from Trump’s 2024 impact—Morris flipping is a game-changer.
2️⃣ 🔵 Mikie Sherrill (86.5) ⬇️ – Suburban firewall weaker—must hold Bergen at all costs.
3️⃣ 🔵 Josh Gottheimer (77.5) ⬇️ – Needs to lock down North Jersey moderates.
4️⃣ 🔵 Stephen Sweeney (75.0) ⬆️ – Trump’s gains in South Jersey keep him in play.
5️⃣ 🔵 Steven Fulop (74.0) ⬇️ – Urban support steady, but statewide appeal unclear.
📌 Note on Voter Turnout Adjustments:
While Trump’s performance in New Jersey in 2024 offers insight into voter shifts, gubernatorial elections historically have much lower turnout than presidential races. In 2021, fewer than half as many voters cast ballots compared to 2020, meaning a different electorate will decide the 2025 governor’s race.
To reflect this, we’ve adjusted our projections to show how many votes Ciattarelli would actually need per county in a 2025 turnout scenario, rather than relying on 2024 presidential election numbers.
📊 Key Takeaway: Ciattarelli doesn’t just need 52% statewide—he must outperform in GOP-leaning counties like Morris & Gloucester (55-56%) while keeping Bergen & Passaic competitive (48-50%) to secure a win.
🚨 This underscores why off-year elections are different—and why turnout strategy will be key in 2025. Lower turnout favors candidates who can mobilize their base in key counties, making ground game, voter outreach, and county party endorsements even more critical.
🔮 The Big Picture: Why Ciattarelli Gains the Most from Trump’s Return
✔️ Trump’s NJ gains give him a wider GOP base to work with.
✔️ With Morris flipping red, Ciattarelli has a clear GOP power center in North Jersey.
✔️ Gloucester’s shift means South Jersey is in play, helping him compete statewide.
✔️ Ciattarelli already came within just a few points of defeating incumbent Phil Murphy in 2021—proving he’s a serious contender.
✔️ If county party lines break in his favor, he could be the first Republican governor of New Jersey since Chris Christie.
🚨 What’s Next?
With county party endorsements approaching, expect major shifts in the next month—and Ciattarelli may be the one to watch.
📢 Is Trump’s return good news for Ciattarelli? Drop a comment! 👇