🔮 ZPI’s Crystal Ball: Predicting Every Possible 2025 NJ Gubernatorial Matchup
The election may be months away, but the Zoose Political Index forecasts the outcome of every potential race combination today.
🔎 Where the Race Stands Now
For the past seven weeks, the Zoose Political Index (ZPI) has delivered the most data-driven, insider-backed analysis of the 2025 New Jersey governor’s race. We’ve tracked endorsements, fundraising, and momentum shifts—offering a real-time snapshot of how the primaries are shaping up.
But today, we’re taking things a step further.
Rather than waiting for the primaries to play out, ZPI is forecasting every possible general election matchup right now. We've built a head-to-head matchup matrix that pits each declared Democrat against each declared Republican to predict the most likely winners for all 24 possible general election scenarios.
📌 Who wins if Jack Ciattarelli faces Mikie Sherrill?
📌 Does Steven Fulop have a path to victory against Bill Spadea?
📌 Would Jon Bramnick outperform Ed Durr in a Republican primary—and could he hold up against a stronger Democrat like Josh Gottheimer?
No pollster, news outlet, or political strategist has been bold enough to attempt this yet. But that’s why ZPI exists—to cut through speculation and deliver real, data-driven election analysis.
Let’s get started.
⚠️ Taking on the Internal PAC Poll
While ZPI would love to take a victory lap after Kellyanne Conway’s KAConsulting released an internal PAC poll claiming Jack Ciattarelli holds a commanding 29-point lead in the GOP primary—seemingly validating all of our previous analyses—we're not buying it. Sure, we're ahead of the curve, cutting-edge, and setting the standard in election analysis, but this so-called 'internal poll' just doesn't add up.
Political campaigns often release internal polls to shape narratives rather than inform the public. These numbers aim to create perceptions, not reflect reality. A 29-point lead in a race where Bill Spadea boasts strong grassroots support? Our data suggests otherwise.
Moreover, with the traditional county line ballot system undergoing significant changes, the usual establishment advantages may not hold the same weight this election cycle. As you'll see later in this article, while Jack Ciattarelli does hold a strong position, the evolving electoral landscape calls for a closer examination beyond surface-level numbers.
🏛 A Follow-Up on County Lines & Endorsements…
Last week, we examined the crumbling county line system and its impact on the 2025 New Jersey gubernatorial race. This week, that trend accelerated.
As reported in the New Jersey Globe this week, Rep. Josh Gottheimer made waves in the race by opting out of county conventions where the results were predetermined—aligning with Steven Fulop and Steve Sweeney in skipping unwinnable battles. This supports our conclusion: endorsements are no longer a guaranteed advantage. Candidates are increasingly bypassing traditional party structures in favor of direct voter engagement.
📌 Why Does This Matter?
- The county line isn't the golden ticket it used to be. Candidates who rely solely on party endorsements no longer hold the same structural ballot advantages.
- Fundraising & grassroots strategy are now king. Without guaranteed ballot placement, campaigns must lean on financial strength and voter outreach to stay competitive.
- Gottheimer’s viability is now in question. Is he making a strategic pivot—or avoiding an institutional fight he can't win?
This evolving dynamic sets the stage for ZPI’s boldest prediction yet: our matchup matrix - The ZPI Crystal Ball - where we forecast the winner in every possible general election scenario. 🚀
🔮 ZPI Crystal Ball: Who Wins & Why?
The general election may be months away, but Zoose Political Index is calling every possible outcome right now. 🏆
🔮 How? We built the ZPI Crystal Ball—a comprehensive head-to-head grid predicting the outcome of every possible Democrat vs. Republican general election battle.
This isn’t a poll.
This isn’t a guess.
This isn’t campaign spin.
💡 It’s a data-driven forecast—rooted in our rankings, historical trends, fundraising strength, endorsements, and voter demographics.
🧐 How We Made These Calls
Each matchup was determined by three key factors:
✅ Electability: Which candidate has broader statewide appeal?
✅ Campaign Infrastructure: Who has the fundraising, endorsements, and ground game to win?
✅ New Jersey’s Political Landscape: Which way does the state lean in this particular matchup?
Every red dot (🔴) represents a projected Republican victory, and every blue dot (🔵) represents a projected Democratic victory. Toss-ups (🟣) indicate races where no clear advantage exists.
🚨 Key Reminder: These matchups reflect today’s race dynamics—and as the campaign unfolds, we’ll adjust our matrix (if needed) to reflect any new developments.
Now, let’s dive into the matchups. 👇
🔮 The ZPI Crystal Ball
🏆 The Why Behind the Outcome
1️⃣ Ciattarelli vs. Sherrill – Ciattarelli’s strong suburban appeal, proven fundraising ability, and previous near-win against Phil Murphy position him as the GOP’s most viable statewide candidate. Sherrill faces a tougher climb in South Jersey and with swing voters outside her North Jersey base.
2️⃣ Ciattarelli vs. Fulop – Ciattarelli’s appeal in suburban and swing districts outweighs Fulop’s urban coalition, making this a toss-up with a slight GOP lean.
3️⃣ Ciattarelli vs. Gottheimer – Ciattarelli’s past performance in North Jersey and Gottheimer’s limited South Jersey reach give Ciattarelli the upper hand.
4️⃣ Ciattarelli vs. Sweeney – Sweeney’s South Jersey machine is strong, but Ciattarelli’s broad appeal, fundraising, and positive name recognition tilt this race red. Sweeney has serious baggage from his Senate loss to an essentially non-funded, unknown candidate - Durr.
5️⃣ Ciattarelli vs. Spiller – Spiller lacks statewide infrastructure, while Ciattarelli has already proven he can mobilize a general election base to get out the vote.
6️⃣ Ciattarelli vs. Baraka – Baraka’s progressive platform faces an uphill battle in competitive swing areas, favoring Ciattarelli.
7️⃣ Spadea vs. Sherrill – Sherrill’s electability and centrist positioning make her a safer bet against Spadea’s divisive media personality.
8️⃣ Spadea vs. Fulop – Fulop’s executive experience outshines Spadea’s populist rhetoric, securing a likely Democratic win.
9️⃣ Spadea vs. Gottheimer – Spadea’s outsider appeal and populist message give him the edge over Gottheimer, despite the congressman’s current fundraising advantage.
🔟 Spadea vs. Sweeney – Sweeney’s South Jersey strength and union backing overpower Spadea’s insurgent candidacy.
1️⃣1️⃣ Spadea vs. Spiller – Spiller’s NJEA ties provide union backing, while Spadea struggles to expand beyond his radio audience.
1️⃣2️⃣ Spadea vs. Baraka – Baraka’s progressive coalition gives him the edge over Spadea in a general election, but it’s close.
1️⃣3️⃣ Bramnick vs. Sherrill – Sherrill wins in a matchup against a moderate Republican, who lacks the grassroots energy to flip the state.
1️⃣4️⃣ Bramnick vs. Fulop – Fulop’s big-city governance and stronger Democratic turnout overpower Bramnick’s centrist appeal.
1️⃣5️⃣ Bramnick vs. Gottheimer – Two moderates face off, but Gottheimer’s Democratic fundraising machine gives him the edge.
1️⃣6️⃣ Bramnick vs. Sweeney – Sweeney’s South Jersey base and Democratic turnout make him the stronger general election candidate.
1️⃣7️⃣ Bramnick vs. Spiller – A battle of moderates, but Spiller’s union backing gives him just enough to edge out Bramnick.
1️⃣8️⃣ Bramnick vs. Baraka – Baraka’s progressive platform mobilizes turnout, making him the likely winner in this matchup.
1️⃣9️⃣ Durr vs. Sherrill – Sherrill dominates against Durr, whose name recognition remains too low statewide.
2️⃣0️⃣ Durr vs. Fulop – Fulop’s strong fundraising and urban support give him a clear advantage over Durr.
2️⃣1️⃣ Durr vs. Gottheimer – Gottheimer’s centrism and financial war chest put him ahead in a general election matchup.
2️⃣2️⃣ Durr vs. Sweeney – Sweeney’s deep ties to South Jersey’s political machine, strong union support and statewide name recognition give him a clear advantage over Durr’s underfunded, grassroots approach in a statewide race.
2️⃣3️⃣ Durr vs. Spiller – Spiller’s union and Democratic support ensure an easy win over Durr in this scenario.
2️⃣4️⃣ Durr vs. Baraka – Baraka’s city base and progressive coalition overpower Durr’s limited Republican outreach.
🔺 ZPI Rankings Update: Winners & Losers
📊 Updated NJ Governor’s Race Rankings (Week-over-Week Changes Included):
📌 Key Takeaways from This Week’s ZPI Rankings
- Ciattarelli Holds Firm, But GOP Undercurrents Shift – While Ciattarelli remains the clear Republican frontrunner, Spadea and Durr continue to gain traction with grassroots Trump aligned voters.
- Sherrill Strengthens Her Standing, But It’s Not Over – Endorsements and North Jersey support keep her in the top tier, but Fulop and Sweeney remain well-positioned to challenge her.
- Fulop’s Cash Advantage Gives Him Staying Power – With the largest war chest among Democrats, he has the resources to battle through a long primary fight.
- Sweeney’s South Jersey Base Is Solid – He continues to leverage labor support and his regional ties to carve out a path to viability.
- Gottheimer’s Risky Strategy Faces Scrutiny – His decision to skip county conventions raises questions about whether he can consolidate enough party backing.
- Spiller’s NJEA Backing Ensures He’s in the Mix – While not a frontrunner, his powerful union ties keep him relevant.
- Bramnick Still Faces an Uphill Battle – His moderate positioning hasn’t translated into real movement in the rankings.
- Spadea and Durr Keep Their Base, But Need a Breakout – Both remain in the race as conservative insurgents, but neither has fundamentally altered Ciattarelli’s trajectory.
📌 Bottom Line:
The Democratic primary remains highly competitive, with Fulop, Sherrill, and Sweeney all vying for the lead. Meanwhile, Ciattarelli dominates the GOP field, but Spadea and Durr continue to appeal to Trump supporters.
🔮 Conclusion: The Road Ahead
The ZPI Crystal Ball is the first attempt to visually map out the entire 2025 race. While polling and endorsements will shift, this model provides a credible, data-driven snapshot of where things stand today and where they are trending tomorrow.
📌 Key Takeaways Moving Forward:
- Ciattarelli’s general election path looks stronger than ever – His combination of name recognition, past statewide performance, and GOP unity make him the top contender.
- Sherrill is still the most formidable Democrat—but it’s not locked up yet – Fulop’s fundraising and Sweeney’s South Jersey network remain factors.
- Gottheimer’s strategy is a calculated gamble – Skipping county conventions allows him to run as an outsider, but it raises questions about his ability to build a winning coalition.
- Spiller’s rise is something to watch – His NJEA support gives him a powerful base, but he has yet to prove that he can he translate his support into broader momentum.
🏀 Next Week - March Madness & the ZPI Crystal Ball: Can Anyone Bust the Bracket?
Next week, ZPI takes a March Madness-style deep dive into the 2025 governor’s race. Who’s a top seed? Who’s at risk of an early exit? And can any candidate bust the ZPI Crystal Ball bracket?
We’ll break down how underdogs can defy the odds, reveal more about the cutting-edge ZPI algorithm that’s changing the way elections are analyzed, and maybe even offer some sage advice for the candidates hoping to make a championship run.
🚀 8 Minutes a Week with ZPI = More Political Insight Than Most Insiders.
🔹 About Zoose Political Index (ZPI)
Zoose Political Index (ZPI) is an AI-driven election analysis platform delivering data-backed rankings & insights on the 2025 NJ Governor’s Race.
🔹 About Patrick Allocco
Patrick Allocco is a veteran of political campaigns, a former Congressional candidate in New Jersey’s 11th District, and the founder of Zoose®.
His background in campaigns and voter outreach led him to create the Zoose® Political Index (ZPI)—a nonpartisan, data-driven ranking system designed to help voters cut through the noise and make informed decisions.
Allocco was recognized in the 2024 edition of Who’s Who in America for U.S. Technology, highlighting his contributions to innovation and AI-driven solutions.