#Cop Girl, TikTok, and the Realignment of the Left
Welcome to New Jersey's 2025 General Election
On June 11—just one day after the New Jersey primary—Casey Ward opened TikTok, queued up Sabrina Carpenter’s “Manchild,” and hit record. The post was five seconds long. A text box flashed across the screen:
“when new jersey dems couldn’t get it together and rally behind ras baraka and picked a cop as their candidate for governor.”
It was a shot at Democratic nominee Mikie Sherrill. It was also a hit.
Ward—a 29-year-old hairstylist, New Jersey native, self-described independent with democratic socialist leanings, and owner of Mirrorball Hair Studio in Midland Park—had voted for Ras Baraka. She didn’t expect the post to go viral, but it did: over 9,000 likes, nearly 700 comments, and hundreds of shares later, a new nickname emerged: #CopGirl.
“So I called her a cop because she’s a former prosecutor,” Ward told us. “It felt very Kamala. Which, fine, but… we’re getting tired of this.”
But this wasn’t just internet snark. It became something more.
On June 12, Ward posted again—this time speaking directly to the Sherrill campaign.
Her tone shifted. She laid out her priorities: codify abortion rights, advance psychedelic research, fund environmental justice, and stop treating progressives like a fringe liability.
“You have the power to radicalize people by being just a little more radical,” she said. “Give us a nibble and we’ll rally for you.”
The following morning, Ward posted a follow-up: the Sherrill campaign had reached out.
In under 48 hours, a viral TikTok turned into a live channel between the nominee’s team and one of the loudest progressive voices on the platform.
This may seem like a one-off. To Zoose, it’s something bigger.
That moment wasn’t just a TikTok flashpoint—it was a preview of the general election’s central tension: whether Democrats can consolidate their coalition fast enough to match the GOP’s early momentum. And it’s a tension ZPI has been tracking for months.
Throughout the primary, we’ve reported extensively on how digital sentiment—especially on TikTok, Instagram Reels, X, Blue Sky, Facebook and Reddit—has revealed cracks, alliances, and realignment trends long before traditional media caught up. Our social scraping infrastructure doesn’t just catch virality. It detects patterns: progressive disaffection, centrist drift, activist demobilization, and yes—moments like #CopGirl.
The Sherrill campaign clearly got the memo. Among all Democrats in the primary, her digital outreach was the most disciplined, consistent, and strategically layered—from issue-based video content to targeted Instagram placements. Her team wasn’t just posting—they were listening.
That’s what made the Casey Ward moment stand out. Not because a progressive voter was frustrated (many were). But because a campaign moved—fast, intentionally, and directly into DM. This wasn’t damage control. It was digital coalition-building in real time.
And it signals what we expect to see more of in the general: a race not just for swing voters in the suburbs, but for cultural credibility online—the kind that’s earned, one DM, stitch, or callback at a time.
That’s the battlefield now. And Sherrill knows it.
Back on February 10, we called it: America’s hottest race you weren’t watching. Five months of plot twists, power plays, and political theater later—it may well be the most consequential race in the country.
For 22 straight weeks, the Zoose Political Index (ZPI) tracked one of the most crowded, volatile, and unpredictable primaries in New Jersey history. In a field packed with mayors, congressmembers, and institutional power players, our mission wasn’t just to monitor the action—it was to anticipate how the race would take shape.
Now we have our answer.
Jack Ciattarelli and Mikie Sherrill have emerged as the two finalists in the race for governor. One, a battle-tested Republican who nearly won the office four years ago, enters the general election with his party unified and a head start. The other, a popular North Jersey Democrat with a centrist message and national fundraising appeal, now faces the challenge of knitting together a splintered coalition in just five months.
This week, we take a look at why the road to the State House might be narrower—and more unpredictable—than either side expected.
🔮 The Model That Delivered—And What It Still Sees Coming
Back in February, ZPI published its Crystal Ball report—a head-to-head matrix of every plausible general election scenario. It was bold, early, and grounded in what our model saw beneath the surface. And while the general election is still ahead, the primaries have already validated the core of our thinking.
The signs were there: Mikie Sherrill would emerge as the Democratic frontrunner—but not without showing cracks in the coalition. And on the GOP side, a fractured field would clear the way for a single dominant figure.
Yes, the Crystal Ball is still spinning toward November. But ZPI’s model? It’s already paying off—with receipts.
We projected Jack Ciattarelli would dominate a collapsing Republican field—and he did. While figures like Bill Spadea, Jon Bramnick and Ed Durr appealed to narrow ideological bases, none came close to matching Ciattarelli’s combination of name recognition, fundraising strength, and statewide infrastructure. That early advantage allowed him to pivot to the general election months before any Democrat could.
But the deeper reason we were confident? History. In 2021, Ciattarelli came within just three points of unseating Democratic incumbent Phil Murphy in a state where Republicans are rarely competitive at the top of the ticket. That near-upset wasn’t an anomaly—it was a foundation. From the moment he conceded, Ciattarelli began building again, visiting every county, attending local party functions, and slowly cementing his status as the de facto leader of the New Jersey GOP.
He has not stopped campaigning since. From rubber chicken dinners to Memorial Day parades, he’s remained a constant presence on the political circuit, running a marathon while most of his opponents were training for a sprint.
Now, with over 67% of the Republican primary vote and victories in all 21 counties, Ciattarelli enters the general with something rare in modern politics: momentum that has been earned, tested, and sustained.
🟥 The Trump–Ciattarelli Axis
General elections aren’t won on primary maps alone—and Ciattarelli’s biggest strength heading into November may also be his biggest vulnerability.
Earlier this year, ZPI analyzed the fallout from Donald Trump’s strong 2024 showing in New Jersey. In 2024, Trump flipped key New Jersey counties like Gloucester, Passaic, Atlantic, and Cumberland—blue just four years earlier—signaling a realignment that gives Republicans a clearer statewide path than at any point since the Christie era.
Ciattarelli didn’t stumble into that opportunity—he chased it. He visited Trump National to secure the endorsement, and Trump delivered: Truth Social posts, celebratory statements, even a photo of his signed primary ballot. Whether symbolic or strategic, the alliance was forged in plain sight.
In an off-year election, it’s a calculated move. MAGA voters—especially those reactivated by Trump’s 2024 campaign—remain one of the most energized blocs in American politics. With turnout expected to drop, Ciattarelli is betting on intensity over broad appeal.
But that intensity comes with risk. New national polling highlights the potential cost: a June Economist/YouGov survey found just 35% of adults approve of Trump’s handling of the LA protests, while 50% disapprove. By a net margin of +9, Americans say Trump has gone “too far” with immigrant arrests. For candidates like Ciattarelli, that could spell trouble—especially in suburban swing areas where MAGA branding may repel as much as it motivates.
That wasn’t a concern in 2021. Back then, Ciattarelli ran without national support. According to David Wildstein during an New Jersey Globe Primary recap, Chris Christie convinced RNC leaders he couldn’t win, prompting the party to pour resources into Virginia instead. Ciattarelli came within three points of defeating Phil Murphy—without Washington’s help.
This time, the equation has flipped. The RNC sees New Jersey as winnable. GOP-aligned super PACs are already investing. National donors are engaged. Ciattarelli is no longer running on hope and hustle alone—he has real infrastructure behind him.
💡 ZPI Insight: This isn’t 2021. Jack Ciattarelli isn’t just riding MAGA enthusiasm—he’s backed by national strategy, deep pockets, and full party alignment. That changes the map.
His path forward depends on two forces: base motivation and Democratic disunity. But it’s not just a turnout contest—it’s an ideological battle. On one side: lower taxes, parental rights, and law enforcement. On the other: reproductive freedom, gun safety, and environmental protections.
This race isn’t just about personality—it’s about governing philosophy. And in a state known for its pragmatic voters, those contrasts could decide who shows up—and who stays home.
If Ciattarelli’s affordability pitch and parental rights messaging land with enough independents—while national funding powers his turnout machine—he may do more than compete.
He may complete the upset.
🟦 Sherrill’s Coalition Test
Mikie Sherrill begins the general election as the Democratic frontrunner—but also as a candidate with real work to do. Her 330,000-vote primary win came with a 100,000-vote margin over her nearest rival. That kind of dominance, on paper, looks like unity. In practice, it revealed division.
Together, Ras Baraka and Steven Fulop—two powerful urban mayors—earned more votes than Sherrill. Their supporters, concentrated in Newark, Jersey City, and surrounding areas, represent the progressive and municipal power centers of the party. Sherrill, meanwhile, carried North Jersey’s suburban counties, drawing strength from the same swing areas that made her a rising star in Congress.
Her challenge now is not name recognition or electability—it’s coalition-building. Progressives, unions, Black voters, South Jersey Democrats: all of them played pivotal roles in the primary, and many remain unconvinced or unengaged. Unlike Ciattarelli, who enters the general with a party already coalesced around him, Sherrill must play unifier and frontrunner at once.
She does, however, have strengths Ciattarelli fears. A compelling biography. A centrist tone that resonates with college-educated voters. And a history of flipping tough districts, including her 2018 victory in NJ-11, which required peeling off suburban Republicans and independents—precisely the voters Ciattarelli now needs.
But 2025 is not 2018. Voters are more polarized. Their expectations are more transactional. And Sherrill’s ability to motivate the party base while appealing to swing voters will determine whether her primary win was a high point—or a springboard.
One advantage in her favor: this is still a blue state. New Jersey delivered a win to Kamala Harris in 2024, even amid national turbulence and Trump’s gains elsewhere. If Sherrill can replicate that kind of coalition—anchored in women, union voters, and suburban independents—she may not need a landslide. She just needs a Harris-style win.
ZPI Insight: New Jersey hasn’t flipped red in a gubernatorial race since 2013. Sherrill knows she doesn’t have to reinvent the wheel—she just has to rebuild it in time.
📊 ZPI Rankings – Week 22
Transition to General Election Edition
🐘 Republican
1️⃣ Jack Ciattarelli ✅ Nominee 📍 ZPI Score: 91.2
This is what a four-year plan looks like.
Ciattarelli didn’t just win the GOP primary—he ran unopposed in everything but name. With 67% of the vote and a clean sweep of all 21 counties, his dominance is now mathematical, strategic, and psychological. He enters the general election with the full weight of the party behind him—and a Trump endorsement already in the vault.
He’s sharpened his message around affordability and local control, sidestepped intraparty drama, and quietly built a general election operation while others were still measuring lawn signs.
The base is locked. The map is live. Now he’ll test whether MAGA momentum can convert into Morris and Monmouth moderates.
🔍 ZPI Insight: Our model gives Ciattarelli the edge—not by default, but by design. GOP unity, turnout discipline, and early message control add up to a slight but measurable advantage.
🐴 Democrat
1️⃣ Mikie Sherrill ✅ Nominee 📍 ZPI Score: 89.3
She won the Democratic primary by over 100,000 votes—and she earned every one of them.
From Week 1 to Week 19, Sherrill never relinquished the top spot in our rankings. Her coalition of North Jersey moderates, public sector workers, and institutional Democrats held firm through debates, outside spending, and insurgent mayors.
But the primary revealed a challenge that won’t be solved by name ID alone. Fulop and Baraka together outpaced her total—and their blocs now need to be brought inside the tent. The next test? Consolidation.
Sherrill is smart, centrist, and media-savvy. But this race won’t be about messaging alone—it’ll be about mobilizing a fractured party and turning out every available vote in South Jersey and the cities.
🔍 ZPI Insight: She’s still within striking distance. But the burden of unity sits entirely on her shoulders—and time is ticking. Most pollsters would give her the edge right now. But we’re not pollsters, we follow the data.
💰 Money Flood Alert: New Jersey’s $200 Million Race
If the 2025 primary proved anything, it’s that New Jersey is no longer a political afterthought. With over $122.5 millionspent in the primary—more than double any previous gubernatorial primary in state history—the race has shattered records and set the stage for a general election spending blitz.
And that was just the appetizer.
🧷 Primary Spending Breakdown
A historically crowded field, the erosion of the county line system, and aggressive PAC spending all contributed to the surge:
$54.9 million was raised and spent directly by the candidates.
$67.7 million came from outside groups—super PACs and issue-based advocacy orgs.
Sherrill and Fulop led the Democratic pack, each spending around $8.5 million by late May.
📈 General Election Spending Projections
As the race narrows to Ciattarelli vs. Sherrill, the money race is only intensifying. Early ad reservations and super PAC movements suggest:
General election spending is projected to exceed $200 million, placing New Jersey alongside high-profile gubernatorial battles in states like Georgia and Wisconsin.
Republicans are going all in: After ignoring New Jersey in 2021, national GOP leaders and MAGA-aligned PACs now see Ciattarelli as a legitimate pickup opportunity.
Democrats are well-armed: Sherrill’s institutional donors and aligned progressive groups are preparing a financial firewall—especially around issues like reproductive rights, gun safety, and Trump accountability.
🎯 ZPI Insight
Money in New Jersey isn’t just for TV ads—it’s a turnout engine. In low-turnout, off-year elections, the ground game matters more than ever. Whoever can fund more organizers, more mailers, and more digital micro-targeting has the edge.
Bottom line: New Jersey isn’t just in play—it’s now one of the most expensive, high-stakes races in America.
📌 Final Thought: The Head Start
Jack Ciattarelli has had a four-year head start. He knows the job he’s running for, knows the electorate he’s courting, and knows what worked—and didn’t—when he came within inches of winning last time.
Mikie Sherrill is new to this scale of a statewide race. But she’s proven in battle, adept at tone, and entering a race where Democrats still outnumber Republicans by over 900,000 voters.
He’s the tactician with discipline. ♟️
She’s the coalition builder with momentum. 🤝
One has been running since 2021. 🏃♂️
The other just hit the starting line. 🎬
And they’re off.
🔥 8 Minutes a Week with ZPI = More Political Insight Than Most Insiders.
🔹 About Zoose®
Zoose® is a tech company leveraging advanced AI and human-to-human solutions to solve real-time challenges. While Zoose remains focused on enhancing global communication and support, we also apply our AI-driven insights to critical areas like election analysis—bringing data-backed clarity to complex political landscapes.
📊 Zoose® Political Index (ZPI) – AI-driven election analysis delivering data-backed rankings & insights on the 2025 NJ Governor’s Race.
🔹 About Patrick Allocco
Patrick Allocco is a veteran of political campaigns, a former Congressional candidate in New Jersey’s 11th District, and the founder of Zoose®. He has worked on State Senate, Congressional, U.S. Senate, gubernatorial, and Presidential campaigns, gaining firsthand experience in how elections are won—and lost.
His background in campaigns and voter outreach led him to create the Zoose® Political Index (ZPI)—a nonpartisan, data-driven ranking system designed to help voters cut through the noise and make informed decisions.
Allocco was recognized in the 2024 edition of Who’s Who in America for U.S. Technology, highlighting his contributions to innovation and AI-driven solutions.