Mamdani, Baraka, Fulop—and the Democrats’ Rising Left
The new progressive wave is loud, viral, and winning.
📬 Editor’s Note:
This report draws on private, off-the-record conversations with candidates and operatives in both New Jersey and New York. While no direct quotes are attributed, their perspectives are reflected throughout the narrative to provide deeper context and nuance.
Over the past 24 weeks of covering the New Jersey governor’s race, we’ve tracked dozens of variables: money, endorsements, turnout modeling, digital reach. Again and again, the data keeps pushing us back to the same unresolved question within the Democratic Party: who owns the future — the managerial center or the rising left?
We didn’t set out to focus on the progressive movement. The headlines, the data — and the outcomes — made that unavoidable.
New York Sends a Message That Echoes Across the Hudson
Progressive Assemblymember Zohran Mamdani just stunned the political world, defeating Andrew Cuomo — a nationally known Democrat with institutional power, name ID, and donor muscle.
To most, it was just a New York story. To those watching the New Jersey governor’s race? To the Sherrill campaign?
It’s a wake-up call — loud and unmistakable.
Just two weeks ago, we highlighted how the progressive wave — from “Cop Girl” to grassroots activism — was reshaping the Democratic map. Now, with Mamdani’s upset win, that trend is no longer speculative. It’s real. It’s organized. And it wins.
This isn’t about picking on Mikie Sherrill. If anything, her campaign is ground zero for the Democratic Party’s challenge heading into 2026. She’s not just running a race — she’s navigating a referendum on whether Democrats can still win as a coalition.
How she responds to the progressive surge may determine more than her own future. It may determine the party’s.
📈 A Movement, Not a Moment
Mamdani. Baraka. Fulop. These aren’t outliers. They’re data points in a rising trend.
Ras Baraka surged late in the Democratic primary with support from younger, progressive voters. Steven Fulop proved grassroots organizing can credibly challenge establishment favorites. Zohran Mamdani showed that TikTok-fueled momentum and unapologetic progressive values can topple a brand as big as Cuomo.
The progressive lane isn’t waiting on permission — or party approval.
That’s why influencers like Casey Ward (“Cop Girl”) matter. Her TikTok “dreaming of a Mamdani win” wasn’t just more snark — it reflected the emotional alignment of a young, online left that wants more than party loyalty. For these voters, Sherrill still feels like the candidate in need of convincing.
👟 How Mamdani Beat Cuomo: The Blueprint for a New Left
Mamdani didn’t just win — he rewrote the rules for how progressives can take on political royalty. The numbers tell the story:
Outspent nearly 3 to 1: Cuomo’s super PACs poured in $25M+. Mamdani relied on NYC’s public match system and small donors.
Volunteer Army: Over 46,000 volunteers knocked on more than 1 million doors.
TikTok Win: Over 412K followers, 7M+ likes — with content ranging from rent freeze policy to diving into Coney Island fully clothed.
Youth Surge: Among voters under 45, Mamdani outperformed Cuomo 52% to 18%.
Resilient Close: Despite a $5M ad barrage against him, Mamdani surged late and closed hard.
This wasn’t just a win. It was a case study.
📲 The Mamdani Social Media Playbook
This week, Washington Post tech reporter Tatum Hunter asked a critical question: What made Zohran Mamdani’s social media campaign so effective?
The answer, she found, had nothing to do with memes or age — and everything to do with intentional, values-driven communication. Here are three core lessons from her reporting:
1️⃣ He engaged skeptics — not just fans
Mamdani didn’t just appear on influencer podcasts that echoed his views. He sat down with retired NYPD officers who strongly disagreed with his proposal for a Department of Community Safety. The conversation was tense — but the point was reach, not comfort.
2️⃣ He worked with storytellers — not just marketers
His team wasn’t built around political consultants or meme-makers. It included filmmakers, artists, and producers experienced in creating viral “man-on-the-street” content. Each video told a clear, human story — not just a campaign slogan.
3️⃣ He led with policy — not vibes
Rather than defaulting to empty aestheticism, Mamdani hammered his core proposals repeatedly in language that resonated:
“I’m freezing…your rent as the next Mayor of New York City”
He said that as he jumped into the Atlantic Ocean wearing a suit.
💡 The Takeaway
Social media didn’t cause Mamdani’s win — but it amplified his clarity, consistency, and courage. As Tatum notes, “Strategists told me that other Democrats will not replicate his success if they borrow his social playbook without understanding the messaging behind it.”
Just like JFK’s performance in the first televised debates reshaped presidential politics in 1960, Mamdani’s campaign may be remembered as a turning point in how serious candidates leverage digital platforms — not for likes, but for legitimacy.
🌊 One Wave, Many Currents
It’s tempting to see Zohran Mamdani, Ras Baraka, and Steven Fulop as part of a single progressive tide. And while they share a common defiance of political orthodoxy, the undercurrents in each campaign were strikingly different.
Mamdani’s victory in New York was powered by a young, digitally native, and ideologically progressive electorate. His strategy leaned heavily on TikTok and left-leaning purity — connecting with first-time voters and the digitally engaged left in ways traditional campaigns haven’t caught up to.
Baraka’s late surge in New Jersey looked different. His base leaned heavily on urban, minority voters who turned out hard on Election Day — less about issue purity and more about cultural alignment, representation, and trust. While he was framed as the progressive candidate, the energy behind him wasn’t solely ideological — it was deeply communal.
Fulop’s campaign, meanwhile, drew in pragmatic progressives and independents who declared as democrats on Election Day— voters who supported reform and pushed back against the establishment, but who weren’t necessarily aligned with the activist left. His coalition was less emotional and more transactional: policy-first, outcomes-driven, and wary of dogma.
What connects them isn’t just ideology. It’s a growing rejection of establishment complacency. But the form that rejection takes — whether activist-driven, identity-rooted, or policy-pragmatic — depends on the local terrain.
And turnout changed everything. High-turnout elections don’t just amplify enthusiasm — they also dilute ideological clarity. Late-breaking, low-information voters often move based on name recognition, cultural cues, or emotional alignment — not platform details. That dynamic likely benefited both Sherrill and Baraka, and helps explain why even a disciplined 21 county campaign strategy, like Fulop’s, can get overwhelmed when turnout explodes.
The takeaway: the progressive wave is real. But it's being powered by different forces — sometimes ideology, sometimes identity, sometimes sheer narrative heat.
Call it one wave. But it’s moving in many directions at once.
🧭 Sherrill’s Strategy: Familiar Crisis, Different Frequency
Mikie Sherrill’s message has been consistent:
Stop Trump. Stop MAGA. Choose calm over chaos.
It worked in 2018. But this is a post-Roe, post-Jan. 6, post-Biden fatigue world — and now, affordability is the issue front and center.
Sherrill is talking about it.
So was Zohran Mamdani.
But the difference in how they talk about it may explain why one galvanized a movement — and the other still struggles to excite the base.
In a recent interview with Jen Psaki on MSNBC, Mamdani described his win as:
“Part of a larger referendum on where our party goes... One of the hopes we had from the very beginning of this campaign was to move our political instinct from lecturing to listening.”
He visited neighborhoods in the Bronx and Queens — areas that swung toward Trump — and asked disillusioned Democrats what they needed.
“Again and again, what I heard from them was cost of living... an inability to afford the very things they recalled being able to purchase four years ago.”
“And ultimately, in listening to them, we built a campaign that was explicitly about making this city affordable.”
Sherrill, too, has made affordability a central part of her platform. In an interview on the podcast, No Lie with Brian Tyler Cohen, she said:
“New Jersey has gotten completely unaffordable... The thing I hear the most about is the cost of mortgages, the cost of rent.”
“That’s why I’ve run an affordability agenda on how I'm going to build houses, drive utility costs down, fix the broken healthcare system.”
So while both campaigns focused on the same crisis, Mamdani’s was bottom-up — emotionally urgent and movement-led. Sherrill’s is top-down — policy-heavy, managerial, and focused on restoring confidence.
In a recent statement, reported by Newsmax, Sherrill acknowledged Mamdani’s momentum without fully embracing it:
“While I have plenty of disagreements with Mr. Mamdani, I share his voters’ goals of ‘making life more affordable.’ I’m focused on my race and bringing costs down in New Jersey...”
It was a measured response — one that tries to bridge the divide without surrendering message control. She sees the wave. She just doesn’t want to ride it.
⚠️ For moderates like Mikie Sherrill, it’s a warning:
Online energy, affordability messaging, and Gen Z turnout can now overwhelm even the biggest institutional advantages — especially when paired with a sense of authenticity and urgency.
🔵 Coalition Math
Sherrill’s strategy plays to two distinct needs:
1️⃣ Moderate Backstop
Gottheimer and Sweeney supporters are fiscally centrist, pragmatic, and wary of MAGA — BUT they could also be tempted by Ciattarelli’s affordability pitch.
By tying Ciattarelli to Trump—and stressing affordability, Sherrill sends a message:
“You may not love me, but you know the alternative.”
2️⃣ Progressive Reengagement
Among Baraka and Fulop voters — especially the young left — Sherrill lacks excitement.
But reframing the race as a national referendum on Trumpism changes the game.
For many on the left, the phrase "stop MAGA" still galvanizes action, even if the enthusiasm isn’t for the candidate herself.
🗣️ Sherrill vs. Ciattarelli on Iran
Trump’s recent military strike on Iran — and the responses it provoked — became more than just foreign policy. For progressives, it was a values test: would Democratic leaders stand up to what they perceive as unchecked presidential power, or fall back on national security platitudes?
Sherrill issued a swift response to Trump’s Iran strike — acknowledging the nuclear threat but slamming the decision to bypass Congress:
“I am deeply concerned by President Trump’s decision to order these strikes tonight without first seeking legal authorization from Congress.”
She leaned on her Navy background to frame herself as strong on national security — but emphasized diplomacy and constitutional process over unilateral action.
In contrast, Jack Ciattarelli fully embraced the strike:
“President Trump’s decision to destroy Iran’s nuclear program was the right move... God bless our American military personnel.”
📊 Public Reaction: Where’s the Trump Bump?
President Trump’s recent foreign policy blitz — bombing Iranian nuclear sites, brokering a cease-fire, and pressuring NATO allies to commit to new defense spending — has reshaped the public narrative. What began as polarized skepticism is now showing signs of an approval bump, particularly among moderates and independents.
Mainstream national polls conducted early in the week, when uncertainty still dominated the narrative, showed significant disapproval:
CNN/SSRS: –12 net approval
Ipsos/Reuters: –9 net approval
Rasmussen (early week): Support for airstrikes was limited; skepticism remained about broader U.S. involvement
But by week’s end, after the cease-fire held and Trump’s NATO summit produced a multi-country commitment to 5% defense funding, the tide had turned.
Enter the Trafalgar Group / InsiderAdvantage and Rasmussen’s late-week numbers:
🇮🇷 Iran Nuclear Strike Approval
58.0% Approve (45.7% strongly)
39.0% Disapprove (32.6% strongly)
🕊️ Cease-Fire Maintenance Approval
66.4% Approve
20.2% Disapprove
13.3% No Opinion
🌍 Overall Handling of Iran/Israel Conflict
59.5% Approve
36.4% Disapprove
📈 Rasmussen Weekly Job Approval (June 22–26)
Sample: 1,961 likely voters (D35 / R33 / I32 weighted)
These numbers suggest that Trump’s post-strike performance — from decisive military action to diplomatic restraint, NATO pressure, and even a Supreme Court win limiting nationwide injunctions— delivered a measurable bump in voter approval. It’s the kind of multi-front momentum that reshapes a news cycle — and possibly the race.
His polling profile for the week came across as both assertive and restrained — bold enough to project strength, disciplined enough to keep the peace. For swing voters and national security-minded moderates, that combination may be recalibrating how Trump is perceived — not just as a disruptor, but as a capable global operator.
💡 ZPI Insight: Caught Between Trump and a Hard Place
This evolving picture reveals two competing political realities:
CNN/SSRS and Ipsos frame Trump as a dangerous unilateralist.
Trafalgar and Rasmussen frame him as decisive, effective, and — crucially — successful.
For Mikie Sherrill, this shift complicates the strategy:
➡️ Lean too hard into anti-Trump attacks, and she could alienate moderates — especially those warming to Trump’s global posture.
➡️ Pull back too far, and progressive voters may disengage, expecting firm opposition to war, MAGA nationalism, and unchecked power.
The key: Use Trump as a contrast — but not a crutch. To hold her coalition, Sherrill must also drive an emotionally resonant message around affordability, reproductive rights, and democratic stability.
For Jack Ciattarelli, the foreign policy win offers a short-term boost — a reminder that Trump’s brand is still potent among Independents and GOP voters. But it only translates locally if Ciattarelli can:
Build a sharper economic message tailored to NJ’s pain points
Engage digital-first voters outside his base
Avoid appearing as Trump 2.0, which still carries risks in Jersey’s general electorate.
🧭 Ciattarelli’s Missed Moment?
Ciattarelli has a rare window. With Sherrill still mending her progressive coalition and Trump enjoying a bounce, the time is now to define his brand as affordability-first, not just anti-Sherrill.
But so far, his campaign is playing it safe. Without stronger digital presence (hint: watch every single Mamdani video like we did) and outreach to soft-blue swing voters, the Trump tailwind could fade before it moves the numbers where it counts.
The battlefield is changing — fast. And voters are watching.
A flatline in our AI-based rankings is a reflection of entrenched coalitions rather than apathy. Both candidates are well-positioned — but waiting for the next catalytic moment.
📉 Why Is Ciattarelli Behind in the Polls — But Ahead in Our Rankings?
ZPI Rankings ≠ Partisan Lean
The Zoose Political Index (ZPI) doesn't just reflect party registration or polling averages. It ranks candidates based on momentum, message clarity, coalition dynamics, and voter engagement signals.
So while Democrats currently hold:
📋 A registration edge (Dems outnumber GOP voters by several hundred thousand)
🗳️ Strong primary turnout (1.37M+ votes cast in June)
Ciattarelli edges ahead in the rankings right now because:
🔺 1. Sherrill’s Coalition Is Broad — But Fragile
She dominated Morris County with 62%, but turnout among progressives (especially in Essex) was weak.
Her message is clear, but lacks emotional urgency — especially among under-35s and Baraka voters.
The base is hesitant. She hasn’t locked in everyone who voted blue in the primary.
🔺 2. Ciattarelli’s Message Is Sharper and More Consistent
His pitch — “affordability, tax reform, local control, law enforcement” — is simple and repeatable.
He’s targeting soft-blue counties like Bergen, Monmouth, and Middlesex — not wasting fire on Essex or Hudson.
The campaign is disciplined: peel off just enough moderates, don’t overreach.
🔺 3. Engagement Signals Favor Ciattarelli
The GOP base is united post-primary. No Fulop/Sweeney/Gottheimer baggage.
Sherrill is still repairing progressive relations — and her digital engagement is stagnant.
Independents are leaning economic. Ciattarelli owns that lane right now.
🧭 Think of It Like This:
Structural fundamentals still favor Democrats.
But current campaign dynamics slightly favor Ciattarelli.
The ZPI score reflects the battlefield as it stands — not just the map as it’s drawn.
If Sherrill consolidates her coalition and re-energizes online voters before Labor Day, the model will move.
But today?
She’s slightly behind — because coalition hesitation > registration edge.
🧭 The Fall Campaign Strategy
With the progressive left rising — and Mamdani’s win shaking up playbooks — the battleground in New Jersey is set.
Within hours of Zohran Mamdani’s victory in New York, Jack Ciattarelli seized on the moment to draw a sharp contrast:
"Mikie Sherrill is endorsing a socialist, antisemite, and defund-the-police extremist, which is shocking, even for her... She should retract her endorsement and apologize to NJ law-enforcement and Jewish residents immediately."
That wasn’t just a red-meat soundbite. It was a tactical pivot — rerouting the conversation from affordability to fear. From Sherrill’s coalition-building message to a wedge-driven culture war. And it previewed the battle lines for the months ahead.
With less than 12 weeks until Vote-By-Mail begins, here’s how both candidates are sharpening their strategies:
🔵 Mikie Sherrill
✅ Positive Messaging
"Stop Trump, Save Democracy"
Sherrill’s central identity — Navy veteran, rule-of-law Democrat, stabilizing force — remains core to her brand, especially with institutional donors and national media.Affordability & Infrastructure
Housing, transit, and utility investments feature prominently, though not yet with the urgency younger voters demand.Protecting Reproductive Freedoms
Tying abortion access and gender equity to the broader MAGA threat gives her cultural relevance and mobilizes suburban women.
❌ Negative Messaging
Trump, Trump, Trump
Every ad and appearance reinforces the existential threat of Trumpism. It’s meant to unify moderates and progressives alike — but risks sounding stale.Ciattarelli = MAGA Enabler
Casting him as a polished version of the same threat. The wolf in moderate’s clothing.Subtle Distance from the Left
Aiming to absorb progressive energy without being consumed by it — signaling support for affordability and justice, but avoiding words like "socialist."
📉 Risks & Outcomes
Her message is coherent but repetitive. There’s a saturation risk.
She currently holds the pragmatic progressive vote — but the emotional progressive base (Baraka-style voters) remains unconvinced.
Over-indexing on Trump could dull the urgency around affordability and economic stress, especially in swing counties.
🧭 Sherrill’s task is not to win the argument — it’s to hold the coalition. And right now, the coalition looks wide but shallow.
🔴 Jack Ciattarelli
✅ Positive Messaging
Affordability, Affordability, Affordability
His signature issue. Proposing tax reform, municipal spending cuts, and property tax relief as the antidote to Trenton’s gridlock.Parental Rights & Education
Framing himself as culturally moderate but protective of parental control — especially appealing to suburban independents.Small Business Revival
Promoting small business growth through tax relief, reduced red tape, and local economic incentives.
❌ Negative Messaging
“Take a Shot Every Time She Says Trump, You Will Be Drunk Until Election Day"
His election night dig already made waves. It plants the idea that Sherrill is fixated on Trump and national discord while ignoring local pain."Filthy Rich While You Struggled"
Attacks on Sherrill’s rising wealth during her time in Congress — including ethics watchdog scrutiny fines — are already circulating in PAC ads and GOP digital campaigns.Cheering on Disillusionment from the Left
Every TikTok calling Sherrill a "corporate Dem" or "mid" helps him. The more the far left base disengages, the better his odds.
📈 Risks & Outcomes
Ciattarelli’s best shot isn’t flipping Essex or Hudson — it’s bleeding Sherrill in Bergen, Monmouth, and Middlesex, where moderate Democrats swung his way in 2021 and remain up for grabs.
He still lacks Gen Z and TikTok traction—his campaign at least should neutralize her omnipresence. If Sherrill finds emotional resonance online, she regains lost momentum.
This isn’t 2018. And it’s not 2021. He doesn’t need to run from Trump — but he can’t become him either. In swing counties, even modest associations with MAGA rhetoric can still alienate moderates. But full-throated rejection isn’t the political currency it once was.
🧭 Ciattarelli’s playbook is surgical: stall her margins, divide her base, and capitalize on affordability anxiety.
📊 The Winning Equation
If Mamdani’s win taught us anything, it’s that the winning formula in 2025 is:
Authenticity + Affordability + Digital Energy = Momentum.
Neither candidate has locked in all three. But both are trying to reverse-engineer it:
Sherrill is betting fear of Trump can make up for lost enthusiasm.
Ciattarelli is betting apathy and anger can depress turnout and tighten the map.
🔚 ZPI Conclusion
Mikie Sherrill’s Trump-centric strategy still holds sway — but she’s running in a younger, faster, more fragmented party. If she doesn’t build a bridge to Mamdani-style enthusiasm, she risks watching the coalition she built walk away.
Ciattarelli, meanwhile, must fully claim the affordability lane that Gottheimer and Sweeney vacated. If he can turn economic clarity into crossover votes — while letting TikTok do the dirty work — he’s got a real shot.
This isn’t just about one race.
It’s about who gets to define the next era of the Democratic Party.
And who’s ready to take the fight to the voters who now live — and vote — online.
🔥 8 Minutes a Week with ZPI = More Political Insight Than Most Insiders.
🔹 About Zoose® and Patrick Allocco
Zoose® is an award-winning technology company founded by Patrick Allocco, a veteran campaign operative and former Congressional candidate. Built on multi-patented AI and human-to-human communication tools, Zoose solves real-time challenges across industries—from global support services to political intelligence.
At the forefront of its civic innovation is the Zoose Political Index (ZPI)—a nonpartisan, AI-powered election analysis platform that delivers weekly rankings, turnout modeling, and data-driven insights. ZPI has become a trusted source for understanding the evolving dynamics of the 2025 New Jersey Governor’s race and soon beyond.
Patrick Allocco has advised and worked on campaigns at every level—State Senate, Congress, U.S. Senate, gubernatorial, and Presidential—giving him a uniquely practical perspective on voter behavior and strategic messaging. His experience in field operations and coalition-building fuels Zoose’s mission to cut through the noise with clarity, accuracy, and impact.
In 2024, Allocco was recognized in Who’s Who in America for U.S. Technology for his contributions to innovation and AI driven solutions.
Scary stuff